CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-09-13T10:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-09-13T10:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17733/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a faint partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and is visible in the NW of STEREO A COR2. The source is a filament eruption north of disk center. It starts around 03:54Z and is visible in SDO AIA 193 as dimming, SDO AIA 171 as moving/opening field lines, and SDO AIA 304 as a filament eruption. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: This IPS signature exhibits a notable change in B-field fluctuations (a jump from 4 to 7 nT in B_tot) and an increase in density from 5 to 12 cm^-3. Field rotations are subsequently observed with corresponding drops in temperature, suggesting the passage of one or more flux ropes. This signature later exhibits a southward B_z component with a peak magnitude of 13 nT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-17T01:29Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-09-18T19:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 35.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center Sent: Tuesday, September 14, 2021 9:51 AM To: Mays, M. Leila (GSFC-6740) Subject: [EXTERNAL] CME arrival alert This mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert. expected arrival time: 2021-09-18T19:00:00 time_uncertainty: 12 min_estimated_peak_K: 2 max_estimated_peak_K: 5 probability_of_arrival: 35 --- :Issued: 2021 Sep 14 1549 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# A partial halo CME detected by COR2/STEREO-A and LASCO-C2/SOHO at Sep 13 12:00 UT. It is associated with the eruption of a long filament that extended from the North to the North West of the solar disk. The CME has a projected velocity of 300 km/s and an angular width of approximately 300 degrees. It is expected to arrive on Earth late on 18 Sep. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#Lead Time: 59.63 hour(s)
Difference: -41.52 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) on 2021-09-14T13:51Z
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